Republicans Likely to Move Quickly to Try to Replace Baker on FCC

Brian Hendricks, an aide to Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, ranking member of the Commerce Committee, is a likely candidate, though Hutchison recommended Baker and may not get another pick, especially since Hutchison is leaving Congress when her term expires in 2013, FCC and industry officials said. Neil Fried, senior counsel for the House Commerce Committee, is seen as a likely front runner. A House aide has not been selected for the FCC since Harold Furchtgott-Roth.

Matt Hussey, an aide to Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, and an engineer who once worked for Verizon, is also seen as a candidate, as is Lee Dunn, telecom counsel for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. One industry executive mentioned Hilda Legg, a former Rural Utilities Service administrator who worked for McConnell. A top telecom lawyer said he has heard Barry Smitherman, chairman of the Texas Public Utility Commission, as a likely candidate.

Candidates who once would have gotten a closer look, such as former FCC Chief of Staff Bryan Tramont, now Wilkinson Barker’s managing partner, are considered less likely to join the list because of new ethics rules, FCC and industry officials said.

Several sources suggested Senate Democrats won’t be in a hurry to replace Baker since doing nothing would leave the FCC with a 3-1 split for the rest of the year, with Robert McDowell the lone Republican. But others said that if Commerce Committee Chairman Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., pushes for approval of his aide Jessica Rosenworscel to replace Michael Copps, other Democrats will likely go along.

"The Democrats can drag their feet, but that just means they'll have a 3-1 [majority] until the end of the year,” said a carrier executive. “I'm not really certain that the Democrats are going to drag their feet, especially if the candidate is Rockefeller’s. He'll make phone calls. If he wants his person on the commission I think he'll push it through.” At the end of the current session of the Congress, Democrats would hold a 2-1 majority with the departure of Michael Copps, versus a 3-2 majority if two new commissioners are confirmed, the executive noted: “There’s no real tactical advantage” to delaying a vote on new commissioners.

"I think it’s business as usual -- so they have to go through the process, pick someone, go through background [checks],” said a veteran telecom lawyer. “They've got major matters coming up and to have it all done by a 2-1 or a 3-1 commission doesn’t make a lot of sense,” a second longtime attorney said. The lawyer said that under the Obama administration ethics rules, both nominees are almost certain to be Hill staffers.

But one former FCC official predicted odds are low Senate Democrats will push for a vote soon, even if the president moves quickly to send nominations. If Baker stayed, “in order for Democrats to maintain a majority in 2012, there had to be movement on the nominations,” the official said. “Now the more motivated party is the Republicans. … The Democrats have much less incentive to move anybody.”

MF Global analyst Paul Gallant said the number of commissioners likely won’t make a difference on the major issues pending before the FCC, such as Universal Service Fund reform. “USF doesn’t change much because it’s more rural versus urban,” Gallant said. “Where Baker’s departure may matter more is on spectrum issues like [mobile satellite service] and broadcast repacking. She’s viewed as a leader and an honest broker in that space, and that might have helped bridge some differences."

"Republicans had no backup candidate, so they are starting from scratch,” noted Public Knowledge Legal Director Harold Feld. “In 2009, it took them considerable time to reach consensus on Baker. Things are potentially more contentious this time around, given changes in the leadership and the rise of a more intensely partisan environment."

"I would expect the administration to defer to Senate Democrats on the Copps seat so that the President has even more latitude to pick his choice to replace [Julius] Genachowski as chairman,” said Michael Calabrese, director of the New America Foundation’s Wireless Future Program. Genachowski’s term runs until June 30, 2013, but in recent history chairmen have rarely stayed beyond a single term of an administration, though Genachowski has said nothing about when he plans to leave the FCC.

Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., praised Baker for her service. She doesn’t know who will replace her, but it’s important to find someone quickly, since Baker’s departure leaves a 3-1 commission, she said.