5G Faces Delays, May Have to Change Because of COVID-19
5G “will play a very important role in economic recovery,” Andreas Geiss, European Commission head of unit-Radio Spectrum Policy, said during a Forum Europe webinar Thursday. Any delay would be bad for the economy, Geiss said. “The crisis lets us see how important telecom networks really are.”
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The EU is increasing broadband funding in response, the official said. The EC plans to stick to deadlines for making 700 MHz available for 5G in mid-2020 and the 3.6 and 26 GHz bands available by year-end. Some concerns have been raised and some nations may go more slowly, he said. “It would be shooting yourself in the foot if you delayed beyond what is absolutely necessary,” he said: “No national delay shall affect plans of the neighboring member states that want to go ahead.” Geiss noted some countries may reward 26 GHz licenses without an auction, and demand appears low so far.
“We’re in unprecedented times,” said Philip Marnick, Ofcom group director-spectrum: “Telecom networks are really important.” With more people working from home, in-building coverage is more important, he said. The 5G focus may change, with more emphasis on availability at home, he said. In the U.K., there has been resistance, he said. “We need to make sure ... people believe the new technologies will give them new benefits as they go forward.”
Like other regulators, Ofcom is looking at how it can assist operators, Marnick said. Fifth-generation will roll out, though possibly more slowly, he said: “What people want and what people need might be slightly different than we said before.” Travel may drop in the aftermath of the virus, and people may telecommute more, he said.
Analysys Mason forecasts an overall decline in telecom industry revenue of 3.4% in 2020 and 4.4% decline for mobile, said Principal Mark Colville. The effect on overall earnings will likely be closer to 2%, he said: “It is significant, but at the same time, things could be worse. Think airlines, hospitality.”
There have been delays finalizing specifications for 3rd Generation Partnership Project Release 16, which underpins full stand-alone 5G, that could extend time to launch some applications, Colville said. Economic woes are “likely to make it harder for operators to raise money to finance 5G deployment” and carriers are more likely to want to reserve cash because of “financial uncertainty,” he said. Public resistance to 5G and interest in “outlandish 5G conspiracy theories” is growing, Colville said.
Law firm Cooley said COVID-19 could delay 5G “in most markets for most providers by about three to six months.” Cooley cited “interruption in the supply of 5G equipment and an expected shortfall in 5G-enabled phones.” The firm said: “Borders remain closed for nonessential goods. Even if the 5G-enabled equipment and phones were produced on schedule, they may be delayed to the end user and customers by weeks and, possibly, months.”