AT&T, Verizon Early Deployment of Millimeter-Wave for 5G Could Teach Important Lessons
T-Mobile Chief Technology Officer Neville Ray contends AT&T and Verizon were too quick to launch 5G in high-band spectrum (see 1904250065). Experts told us now that Ray highlighted a growing realization that millimeter-wave spectrum will be only part of 5G, though the first to launch. They said AT&T and Verizon are likely learning a lot from their early work, which could give them advantages later on as 5G becomes more widespread across the U.S.
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“Unlike its predecessors, 5G is a network defined by its software,” said Richard Bennett, network architect. “Whatever happens, or doesn’t happen, with 5G networks will come down to the state of the software. We certainly have much to learn about millimeter-wave propagation, but that’s why the carriers are running their trials. This is what progress looks like.”
“It’s becoming increasingly clear that millimeter-wave spectrum will play a supporting, not a starring, role in 5G,” MoffettNathanson’s Craig Moffett said. “Outside of the very densest urban centers, and in large venues like airports, conference centers, and stadiums, it’s just not going to be economically practical. We’ll need mid-band spectrum to bring 5G to the rest of the country.”
Ray said Verizon is getting complaints about its 5G service because the technology isn’t ready. “The software is not mature,” Ray said on T-Mobile’s Q1 call. “We’re not sitting there just throwing rocks at millimeter wave.” T-Mobile will launch in the high-band as well, when software is ready, he said.
The problem with millimeter wave is it “doesn’t penetrate walls, windows very well,” Ray said: “It doesn’t go very far” and doesn’t work more than 500 or 600 feet away from a small cell. “Millimeter-wave can play well in those dense urban environments and places within those dense urban environments,” Ray said.
Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg conceded on that company’s Q1 call there's much to learn on high-band spectrum. “We're very early on in improving the software,” he said. Millimeter-wave won't be “coverage spectrum,” but no company knows more about the dynamics now than Verizon does, he said. AT&T executives weren’t asked directly about millimeter wave during their call last week. Neither carrier commented Wednesday.
“We are still early days, especially with software and beam-forming,” said Roger Entner of Recon Analytics. Carriers are deploying now “to learn how millimeter-wave works, not in the lab with simulated use cases," he said. "Every time we hear from an operator, ‘This works better than expected’ indicates another learning experience.”
“I doubt it matters how quickly Verizon and AT&T got into millimeter wave,” said Cowen’s Paul Gallant. “They already had footholds from their Straight Path and FiberTower deals. And it won’t prevent them for incorporating mid-band as soon as it’s available, which is the key for true 5G.”
Verizon believes “software that enables beam forming will improve the coverage of their millimeter-wave 5G networks but they are unwilling to specify how much it will expand the distances that the 5G small cells can reach,” said BTIG’s Walter Piecyk.
There’s a lot of confusion about what spectrum will be used for 5G, said Information Technology and Innovation Foundation Broadband and Spectrum Policy Director Doug Brake. “It is nothing but good that U.S. operators are leading the charge with experimentation with high-band," he said: It’s not likely to ever blanket the country, but it will play a crucial role, and could very well be disruptive to the broadband market.”