Satellite Mega-Constellation OKs 'Not an Easy Assumption' on Spectrum Demand
Predictions of ramped-up space launch activity stem from the assumption satellite mega-constellations will get licensed, but “that is not an easy assumption” given heated competition for spectrum, said National Space Council Executive Secretary Scott Pace at a commercial spaceflight conference Tuesday. FCC members in April approved licensing for SpaceX's planned mega-constellation (see 1803300014). The agency didn't comment now.
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Though 5G is a top White House priority, so is protection of space services, Pace said. He said spectrum also is a competitive advantage for the U.S. in the 5G race since many nations are focused on solely terrestrial broadband while the U.S. is after technical diversity, especially when serving rural areas. Pace said revisions to the U.S. export controls regime are being worked on. He said the end result won't be "some massive decontrol" but instead a focus on an easier user experience, which is a problem for small and mid-sized enterprises.
Ubiquity Ventures Founders Sunil Nagaraj said the space launch industry is in a "bubble" with dozens of companies trying to start, but other space industry sectors like smallsats and ground infrastructure are "at their prime." He said venture capital is increasingly interested in commercial space because of increased launch options but also because investors see more exit routes for cashing out their investments.
This year likely will see the addition of two companies doing orbital launches and two doing suborbital launches, plus three to six small launchers and three to five stratospheric platforms coming online, said Commercial Space Federation Chairman Taber MacCallum. The downside of that ramp-up is a launch “incident” that is inevitable, he said, saying investors and regulators must be ready for that and “stay the course” to not derail industry momentum.
China boasts a "huge number" of commercial space startup companies but won't be part of the global commercial space arena due both to geopolitics and the level of those companies' performance, said Carissa Christensen, Bryce Space and Technology CEO.
An increased focus on small satellites means an increasingly competitive commercial space insurance market, with insurers chasing after smaller premiums while losses go up due to increased space activity, said Chris Kunstadter, space global underwriting manager for insurer AXA XL. He said 2018 was the worst in 20 years financially for space insurers, and those stresses are expected to continue. He said dozens of industry groups, space agencies and international organizations are trying to figure out space sustainability, and more cooperation is needed. Ideas for more space sustainability range from beacons on all satellites and launch vehicles to a “bottle law” regulatory approach, with operators getting money returned to them after de-orbiting, he said.
Launch companies said rapid reusability -- with far quicker turnarounds between a rocket’s use and going back up again -- are going to be a bigger part of the future. Momentus Space Chief Technology Officer Joel Sercel said the coming years will see big decreases on space hardware costs to the point where small satellites could cost no more than cars.
The FAA’s proposed rewrite of launch regulations, which before the partial federal shutdown had been expected for Feb. 1 release, now likely will be released in late March, said Wayne Monteith, FAA Office of Commercial Space associate administrator.