Election Results Eyed for Prospects on Net Neutrality, Other Hill Telecom Issues
Telecom sector interests told us they'll closely watch midterm results for early clues about how telecom policymaking will fare in next Congress. The margin of control for whichever party holds a majority in the House and Senate is particularly important for indicating whether there will be legislative gridlock on issues like net neutrality and whether compromise is possible on matters like broadband infrastructure funding, said lobbyists and officials.
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Many are also eyeing pending and potential leadership turnover on the Commerce and Judiciary committees as they watch Tuesday's returns. For earlier articles in this series on Congress and the midterms, see 1810310025 and 1811020048.
Many expect split control of Congress, with Democrats winning the House and Republicans maintaining their Senate majority. The margin of control in Senate is almost certain to be narrow whether the GOP or Democrats see a net gain, but there's more uncertainty about the House. The 538 election blog projects a likely range in the Senate from a 51-49 Democratic majority to 55-45 GOP control. In the House, 538 projects the likely final margin could be 219-216 GOP majority to 254-181 Democratic control. The Cook Political Report believes a net Democratic gain of 30-40 seats is most likely. Democrats would need a net gain of at least 23 seats to win the House majority.
“I don’t expect there to be any sweeping legislation that would significantly change” telecom policy next Congress if the voters’ verdict splits Congress, said consultant John Kneuer, who began leading NTIA in 2006 on the cusp of the House’s last flip from a Republican to Democratic majority. “There were statutes a majority-Republican House passed that I had to implement” under Democratic-led oversight, Kneuer said. If Democrats gain a majority in the House, their oversight of telecom policy would likely be “more confrontational,” as it was after the last switch to Democratic control, but “the makeup of the FCC isn’t going to change, nor is NTIA or [President Donald Trump’s] administration.”
A narrow House majority would “make it very difficult for any party on the House floor” to pass any telecom bills to significantly change the status quo, a telecom lobbyist said. “In committee, it’s easier to lock arms and send a bill to the floor” with narrow control, but “once it’s on the floor, it’s a much higher profile.” The size of a party’s House majority is “much less of a concern” for oversight of the FCC and other agencies, the lobbyist said. House Commerce Chairman Greg Walden, R-Ore., and ranking member Frank Pallone, D-N.J., are expected to remain their respective parties’ lead committee members.
Free State Foundation President Randolph May will watch how voting results might affect the debate on net neutrality legislation. Electronic Frontier Foundation Legislative Counsel Ernesto Falcon believes there's “a window of opportunity to resolve” the net neutrality debate but “I think we’re going to be waiting on the courts” to rule on legal challenges to the FCC 2017 order rescinding its 2015 rules before a legislative debate on the issue is appropriate. Monday, the Supreme Court said it won't review the older rules (see 1811050008).
Senate Commerce Chairman John Thune, R-S.D., told reporters last month he believes the net neutrality issue doesn’t “have the resonance” in the campaign that Democrats had hoped for. “I don’t see any campaign talking about it,” and it hasn’t been a top issue for the “average person.” Several Hill campaigns cited net neutrality, including that of Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas, in his bid to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas. Fight for the Future and other Congressional Review Act supporters sent out a questionnaire in August to 38 House members and their challengers about their position on the measure to reinstate the older regulations (see 1808160073).
One race that will be a “likely indicator” of the electoral effect of net neutrality is the contest between Rep. Mike Coffman, R-Colo., and Democratic challenger Jason Crow, May said. Coffman is the only House Republican to support the CRA measure (see 1807170048). Coffman is “at least in a very tight race,” May noted.
Recent polls “don’t look particularly promising” for Coffman, said University of Denver Center on American Politics Director Seth Masket. “He’s had a number of close shaves” in his re-election bids “but he’s never been in as dire a situation as he is now.” Crow led Coffman by 9-11 points in two New York Times-Siena College polls since September. Net neutrality and Coffman’s support for the CRA has “certainly not been an issue that either he or his opponent have been talking about,” Masket said: “It may matter for some core voters but it just hasn’t been playing a prominent role” in the contest.