New Commissioners May Not Much Alter Issues—Yet, Experts Say
The FCC's going from three to five commissioners (see 1708030060) isn’t likely to alter Chairman Ajit Pai’s momentum and main policy agenda, but it could lead to shifts on lower-profile items and possibly a slightly slower-moving commission if Pai seeks to include all the members in deliberations, industry officials said Friday. Former officials said the additions likely means Commissioner Mike O’Rielly’s role will grow in stature. Telecom, cable and satellite representatives expect little to no learning curve given the experience the two bring. Commissioner Brendan Carr may not trigger any notable change in Pai’s agenda, since pet interests of his very likely could be baked into Pai’s priorities.
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But "there’s a lot more drama with five,” said Multicultural Media, Telecom and Internet Council President Emeritus David Honig. Public interest lawyer Andrew Schwartzman said the addition will somewhat dilute the chairman's power.
Carr comes in knowing he's on the FCC in part because of Pai’s strong support, said a spectrum official. O’Rielly will be a key swing vote on many issues, meaning a higher profile, a former official said. O’Rielly becomes “the closest thing to a swing vote and has the potential to wield the most influence,” said a former senior FCC official with wireless and other clients: “However, there's a 98 percent chance that the three Republicans will vote together except for fewer than a handful of meaningful items."
“It should have very little impact on the ultimate outcome of proceedings” with more 3-2 votes, said a former senior aide to a chairman. Pai is likely to be more focused than predecessor Tom Wheeler on finding consensus. More commissioners doesn’t mean the power dynamics will change, said Fletcher Heald broadcast attorney Harry Cole. Commissioners Jessica Rosenworcel and Mignon Clyburn will be “in the old Pai-O’Rielly roles, which is to say that they may dissent a lot, but so what?” Cole said. Wall Street also doesn’t see the move as a big change, said Cowen analyst Paul Gallant. "The FCC’s Republican majority since day one of the Trump administration is a pretty stark contrast to the FTC’s one to one deadlock,” Gallant said. Bringing the FCC up to full strength isn’t striking investors as a big deal compared with the way the eventual FTC lineup will matter to tech and telecom companies.
Five commissioners means a larger pool of knowledge, likely to be felt in rulemakings, said former Commissioner Michael Copps, now with Common Cause. High-profile items such as net neutrality are just as likely to break along party lines with a full commission as they did with three, but individual commissioners can have influence on less high visibility items, he said. It’s common for commissioners to adopt “pet” issues, and for the rest of the FCC to defer to them on such issues where possible, Honig said, pointing to Rosenworcel’s affinity for USF. Five commissioners also gives the FCC’s decisions more weight, said consultant and former Clyburn aide Adonis Hoffman: “With a full complement in place, the Chairman can move the agenda without concern for lack of process.”
Adding Carr and Rosenworcel means more wireless expertise on the eighth floor than ever, said Michael Calabrese, director of the Wireless Future Program at New America. Carr was Pai’s wireless adviser and Rosenworcel always has been focused on spectrum, he said. “Some of the spectrum issues could move more quickly and decisively,” Calabrese said.
No two non-sitting commissioners have been confirmed with more FCC experience than Rosenworcel and Carr, meaning Pai won't have to slow down the pace of his agenda, said American Cable Association Senior Vice President-Government Affairs Ross Lieberman. Rather than a learning curve, "in this case, both ... are going to hit the ground running," he said. Rosenworcel already is familiar with big-picture issues, said Satellite Industry Association President Tom Stroup.
“From Pai’s perspective, adding Brandon will add an ally and potentially reliable supporting vote,” said Francisco Montero, managing partner at Fletcher Heald. “He already had a pretty powerful train rolling down the track with just O’Rielly and adding Brandon will not greatly change that.” And Clyburn gains an ally, Montero said. “Adding Jessica to the minority could empower the dissent. If they are able to collaborate … that could change the dynamic of the dissenting minority.”
The extra inputs five commissioners will bring could slightly slow the FCC’s pace, officials said. There are FCC procedures that could exacerbate that, such as the commission practice of allowing any commissioner to ask for an extra 30 days on an item, Honig said. In past administrations, such holds have often occurred in mergers and acquisitions, he said. The full complement also could speed some actions, since more items will now be able to be passed outside commissioners' meetings.
FCC watchers told us the addition of the two will change the dynamic by bringing additional voices and more parties to lobby, but the new commissioners aren't expected to have surprising agendas or pet projects. Neither is seen approaching the job from the perspective of being a proponent of any one industry or technology.