Clinton Pick for Chair of FCC Seen Hard to Handicap

The past three administrations point to the importance of relationships as a choice is made. Bill Clinton originally was focused on Toni Cook Bush, a former Senate staffer now at News Corp. as chairwoman of the commission. But she took herself out of contention, according to former FCC officials and news accounts from 1993. Reed Hundt, who was at Yale Law School with the Clintons and St. Albans School with former Vice President Al Gore, eventually got the nod.

Michael Powell, George W. Bush’s first FCC chairman, became an obvious choice since he already was on the commission and is the son of Colin Powell, Bush’s first secretary of state, ex-officials said. Former Chairman Julius Genachowski, who had worked for Hundt at the FCC, was an adviser to the Obama campaign in 2008 and went to Harvard Law School with President Barack Obama. When Genachowski expressed an interest in being chairman, Obama said yes, former FCC officials said.

Current FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler was a top bundler of campaign contributions for Obama, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, but most observers don't see that as a route to being chairman, especially during the first part of an administration. Wheeler could stay on for several months in the new presidency, based on the limited past precedent (see 1608240057).

A few names have surfaced, including Alec Ross and Phil Verveer, a senior adviser to Wheeler, both of whom worked for Clinton at the State Department. Ross is a visiting fellow at Johns Hopkins University. Karen Kornbluh, executive vice president-external affairs at Nielsen, has long been seen as a contender for a slot at the FCC. Former FCC General Counsel Jonathan Sallet, now at DOJ, is another Wheeler administration veteran seen a possible choice. Former Commissioner Susan Ness is on the list of those bundling contributions for Clinton, though at a much lower level than Wheeler did for Obama. Several observers also mentioned Catherine Sandoval, a member of the California Public Utility Commission and former FCC bureau chief. None would comment.

Former acting Chairwoman Mignon Clyburn and Jessica Rosenworcel, the other FCC Democrats, are mentioned by some observers as likely candidates. If not confirmed to a second term, Rosenworcel will have to leave the FCC at the end of the current Congress.

A top telecom analyst said Clinton seems most likely to pick a woman. No woman has ever held the post, except Clyburn on an acting basis. “Most say that supporting net neutrality is a prerequisite for the selected person,” said a former Democratic commissioner.

“Many people, myself included, are likely to spend a lot of time speculating about this,” said Andrew Schwartzman, Georgetown Law Institute for Public Representation senior counselor. “I recommend Fantasy Football instead. The fact is that this is impossible to handicap.” With the possible exception of Powell, there is never a single obvious choice for the next chairman, he said.

“Even though the Clinton telecom universe is well known, it could well be that someone from outside that group will wind up with the appointment, as was the case with Reed Hundt,” Schwartzman said. “In addition, given how much more important the FCC has become over time, the Senate, and to a far lesser degree House Democrats, will also have a lot to say about this, especially if the Democrats take back control of the Senate.”

During the early stages in a presidential cycle, it's very difficult to predict who will be the new president's FCC chair, agreed former Commissioner Robert McDowell, now at Wiley Rein. “Numerous factors influence those decisions, such as: Who's qualified and knows the subject matter? Does the prospective candidate have any conflicts or hold any investments that may trigger an appearance issue? Will anything unexpected turn up in the security background check or the political vetting? Will any political constituencies object? Will senators place a hold on the nomination? … It's a complicated process that is impossible for any one person to control.”

“It may be that people say it is hard to predict because there are a lot of communications bar attorneys bundling or working for the Clinton campaign,” said cable lawyer Barbara Esbin of Cinnamon Mueller. “It may be an ‘abundance of riches’ situation with Clinton, whereas it is a total black box with respect to Trump.”

Doug Brake, telecom policy analyst at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, noted the new conventional wisdom that Wheeler could stay in place for months before a new chair is approved if Clinton is elected in November. “Clinton certainly has a deep bench of qualified tech and telecom advisers,” Brake said. “Who shakes out where is anyone’s guess.”

“Lots of countervailing factors” are likely to go into the pick, “ranging from rewarding those who worked hard for the campaign, finding someone the president trusts to do things in general keeping with the priorities of the administration and how to balance among competing constituencies,” said Harold Feld, senior vice president at Public Knowledge. Unlike in her husband’s day, there’s now a lot of attention paid to the choice, he said.

Clinton, if elected, will face “a lot of pressure to select a woman, or person of color, or someone from the LGBTQ [lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer] community as chair,” Feld said. “But more important” is finding someone “people believe will carry on Wheeler's policies on consumer protection and competition,” he said. “If you're Clinton, do you want to alienate the progressive wing from the start by appointing someone they will accuse of being too sympathetic to industry?” Feld asked. “Or do you want to start with a tough confirmation fight on someone the conservatives will accuse of wanting to micromanage the industry and destroy investment and innovation? If you're Clinton, you are really going to want to find a way to thread that needle.”

“I have heard a lot of names tossed around but not by anyone who has any evidence to back them up,” said Larry Downes, project director of the Georgetown Center for Business and Public Policy. "If Hillary wants to continue her history-making run, she will look to appoint a Latina,” said Adonis Hoffman, chairman of the for-profit Business in the Public Interest and former chief of staff to Clyburn. Hoffman said California's Sandoval would be a natural choice for the job.