5G Debate Edges Closer to Timeline for Rollout, but Business Case Remains Shaky
COPENHAGEN -- Despite growing consensus on some aspects of 5G, many issues remain open, speakers said at a conference this week. The timeline for rollout seems to be coalescing around 2020, although some Asian countries are preparing for commercial deployment a bit sooner, they said. But there is "less clarity about the business case," said Nigel Jefferies, who chairs the World Wireless Research Forum, which organized the conference that ran Monday and Tuesday. 5G success will depend on its tie-in with other industry sectors, several panelists said.
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The EU sees 5G as a "crucial element" in the new "industrial revolution" and a key factor in the digital single market, said Mario Campolargo, director of Net Futures, European Commission DG Connect. He said 5G in tandem with the IoT will enable a digitization of the economy that will transform existing value chains into a model of "product as a service."
The 5G debate is beginning to focus on which industries, such as automotive, health or energy, can use 5G to deliver services to their customers, Jefferies said. These "verticals" should be involved in 5G discussions, he and others said. One area where Europe can shine is in bringing in the verticals, because it hosts many leaders in the automotive, health and energy spheres, said Campolargo. The EC is stepping up cooperation with such sectors through studies, white papers and conferences, he said. The verticals are the "game changers" in 5G, he added.
NNE Pharmaplan Senior Consultant Pasi Kemppainen, who said he is studying how to bring IoT infrastructure and the industrial Internet to pharmaceutical companies said 5G is the telecom sector's "last chance" to stretch its services to compete with players like Google. He said 5G's disruptive aspect isn't in radio access but in its services infrastructure. Facebook, Google and others will "eat your lunch" in the future if operators don't deal with services infrastructure, he told the audience. The companies that "will make money are the ones who are controlling the data," said Wassim Chourbaji, Qualcomm head-government affairs, Europe, Middle East and North Africa. Verticals will move to digital only if it boosts productivity, but those that don't move won't exist in five years, he said.
Rolling out 5G will involve huge investments and it's unclear what will drive them, said Jørgen Abild Andersen, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Committee for Digital Economy Policy chairman. He urged the 5G community to stop focusing on better and faster mobile and broadband coverage, which are simply means to a goal. Governments are faced with poor innovation, low growth and high unemployment, he said, adding 5G will undoubtedly be a key player in a flourishing digital economy, but it has to be part of a holistic approach.
The timeline for 5G is now clear, which is the biggest change from last year's huddle, said European Telecommunications Standards Institute Chief Technology Officer Adrian Scrase. But Kumar Singarajah, regulatory affairs and business development director for the European Satellite Operators' Association, questioned whether mobile operators will be ready in the next three to five years to invest heavily in 5G products and services. The generally accepted timeline of commercial rollout in 2020 could slip to the 2030s, he said. BT Head of Wireless Network Services & Sustainability Paul Crane predicted technological demonstrations at scale, but said 4G services will still be deploying in 2020. An Asian nation is likely to adopt 5G first, various speakers said, but it's not yet known which country.