CES Makes Clear That Demands on Spectrum to Soar as Internet of Things Becomes Reality

"There is a disconnect between the private sector and government regarding how much spectrum is going to be required to fuel the development of the Internet of everything,” said former FCC Commissioner Robert McDowell. “Currently, the growth curve for consumption is far outpacing the supply of spectrum. This means two things. The government needs to relinquish more of its own spectrum for auction and private sector use. And we need to … encourage the development of policies that foster spectral efficiency. This is a sleeper issue and it’s going to start to bite innovators in the rear end if something is not done very soon.”

"It’s a challenge,” said a wireless carrier executive. “Even as we look at the federal spectrum, drones was one of the toughest things to look at and they're using more and more spectrum. I think accommodating that is getting to be difficult and will continue to be a problem and driverless cars will add to that. All of it adds up.”

"I think Commissioner Rosenworcel smartly captured the big take-away at CES, even if it wasn’t obvious to others bedazzled by new gadgets big and small,” said Jeff Silva, analyst at Medley Global Advisors. “I think this CES and subsequent ones will only underscore how critical spectrum is to this brave new world in which Internet of Things and mobile broadband can be said to be only in their infancy. As such, this reality will require spectrum policy to remain among the highest of priorities for federal regulators, lawmakers and others well into the future. It will mean bold, sometimes even disruptive, decisions on efficient allocation of spectrum resources and make future spectrum planning essential."

Industry and government officials at CES told us one big take-away is that spectrum policy needs to become increasingly smart, with more reliance in the future on spectrum in bands higher than those commonly used now.

"Spectrum is key for all of these new wireless devices and the technologies that they're supporting,” said Julius Knapp, chief of the FCC Office of Engineering and Technology. One of the FCC’s lead areas of focus is making more spectrum available for licensed and unlicensed use, Knapp said. “As you look out on the floor you'll see many products that deploy both licensed and unlicensed and there’s a synergy between the two.” Several spectrum auctions are planned, the FCC has a proposal before it to use more 5 GHz spectrum for unlicensed use and unlicensed is a big focus of agency work on the incentive auctions of TV spectrum, Knapp said. “We're devoting a lot of energy to trying to provide more spectrum for all that continues to fuel the innovation that we're seeing here at this show,” he said. “There’s a point where the marketplace decides which technologies to embrace and that’s the way it should be. People lose sight of the fact that Wi-Fi, as successful as it has been, came along 12 years after the rules were first adopted. The first five years after the spread spectrum rules were adopted in 1985, there were fewer than 100 products in five years.”

"As I look out on the evolution of the Internet of Things and the Internet of everything we're going to need more spectrum, but different types of spectrum,” said Robert Pepper, Cisco vice president-global technology policy. “Some of the devices will need to communicate over short distances, for example, between a medical patch and my smartphone. Others are going to have to connect over long distances, miles if it’s agricultural … sensors tied back to farming.” Some data streams will be narrowband, other streams like video need to be much broader, he said. “Some of the data streams are going to be continuous video, some are going to be very bursty, all it’s going to say is ‘I'm here’ and then go back to sleep,” he said. “We need to think about spectrum requirements not in silos but on a more integrated basis.”

Free State Policy Director Matt Wood said spectrum shortage arguments are often “overblown” by the wireless industry. “Especially if the new wave of devices and applications can use more efficient shared and unlicensed spectrum,” Wood said. “Your refrigerator won’t need continuous access to an exclusively licensed 20 MHz block just to tell you the door is open. It will only need to patch into the Wi-Fi network you're using at home already. Mobile things on this Internet of Things present a slightly different challenge, but not if we have a mix of licensed, shared, and unlicensed frequencies available -- both below 1 GHz and above."

"New technology will, over time, allow us to use spectrum much more robustly than we do today,” said Scott Harris, managing partner at Wilkinson Barker. “At each CES you see extraordinary new devices that rely on spectrum resources. I think you'll find that technology allowing more intensive use of existing spectrum resources and the use of fallow bands will keep pace with the development of these amazing new devices. While we certainly need to make more spectrum available for commercial uses now, the more I talk with technologists the more I believe we have only begun to scratch the surface of the use we can make of the radio spectrum."

"There is no shortage of spectrum,” said a former FCC legal adviser. “Now that T-Mobile is buying 700 MHz A-block spectrum from Verizon Wireless, all of the big four are set for at least 10 years. Problem is that the FCC collects no data outside of wireless transactions on how spectrum is used by carriers. So they have no idea what the spectrum ’status’ is today.”

"Competition for spectrum means that innovators must constantly innovate -- e.g., squeeze more from the bands that are already available, develop new technologies for providing services in higher bands, give greater consideration to receiver efficiencies,” said a former FCC spectrum official. “And the good news is this is happening. Yesterday’s ‘junk’ is truly today’s treasure."

Public Knowledge Senior Vice President Harold Feld said much work remains. “One of the things no one is considering is which uses make sense for licensed spectrum and which uses make sense for unlicensed spectrum, and how to properly mix the two,” he said. “This is what we see going on in the market all the time, where consumers have devices with Wi-Fi chips and contracts with licensed carriers. People want to take the apps and videos they use and watch online at home on their mobile devices and then access them again during the day -- which requires a contract with a carrier. No one would have wanted Pandora in their car if they hadn’t been first streaming it at home on their Wi-Fi.” Conversely, licensed use can stimulate unlicensed use as people get used to mobility, he said, with people hitting their data caps on smart phones and then moving to available Wi-Fi. “Licensed devices like mobile hotspots using licensed spectrum for broadband access beget a host of unlicensed peripherals and devices using the same cramped 2.4 GHz spectrum for Wi-Fi and Bluetooth. What good is a 4G hotspot if I and my family don’t have enough unlicensed spectrum to run all our devices on it?”

But Feld said the thinking on how to create the best blend of licensed and unlicensed remains fragmented. “Even at the FCC, you see old fights playing out between those who think licensed or unlicensed is inherently ‘better’ or more important,” he said. “Decision makers, especially on the Hill, are not yet taking a comprehensive, holistic approach. What we have are different camps advocating and the FCC and Congress arbitrating the difference. This needs to change if we are going to continue to meet the growing demand for so many different and varied wireless uses.”