FCC Technology Transitions Task Force Tries to Understand IP Transition
Whether wireless can be an effective substitute for fiber was a key question industry representatives struggled with Monday at the inaugural meeting of the Technology Transitions Policy Task Force. The main objective of Monday’s workshop was to establish a “factual baseline” for understanding three main transitions, said FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski: the evolution of network protocols from TDM to IP, replacement of copper networks with fiber, and the shift from wireline to wireless service. More than a third of households have already cut the voice cord and gone totally wireless, several panelists said. But some said that, as a replacement for wired broadband, wireless leaves much to be desired.
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FCC commissioners generally agreed on several core principles that should guide the transition. Genachowski focused on ensuring competitive markets, protecting consumers, and maintaining universal service in a broadband world. “To leave large swaths of this country without broadband access in the 21st century is as unthinkable as leaving millions without access to electricity or phone service in the 20th,” he said. Ajit Pai emphasized the importance of ensuring that “obsolete” 20th century regulation not be imported into an IP world; and stepping in when there are market failures or anticompetitive harms. Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel again warned of the peril of new networks that lack the independent electrical source traditionally powering copper plants. “As consumers switch to new networks, I don’t think we need to sacrifice safety in the process,” she said, calling for “hard questions” about backup power.
Tom Maguire, Verizon senior vice president-national operations support, spoke of an “expanded battery backup” the telco is working that would let customers use commercially available batteries. Powered by AA batteries, the device can give far more than the generally available 8-hour backup, he said. A 12-pack of AA batteries could give six days of backup power. “From a resiliency standpoint, I think it’s pretty good,” he said.
Substitutability of various technologies for fiber was a key topic of discussion throughout the day. Cable representatives promised the industry was continuing to invest, with the forthcoming DOCSIS 3.1 standard poised to deliver multi-gigabit speeds; DSL providers said the technology was very capable of delivering 100 Mbps speeds using bonding, vectoring and other technologies. Wireless technology is also promising, said Matt Grob, chief technology officer at Qualcomm: Publicly-accessible femtocells, in cooperation with a backhaul provider and with licensed spectrum, could provide a low-cost, high-performance solution to carrying a lot of traffic, he said.
But others questioned whether wireless is a practical substitute for wired broadband networks, especially in rural areas. “Are you, as a rural subscriber, going to pay $300 a month so you can stream Netflix?” asked David Russell, solutions marketing director at Calix, which provides DSL and fiber-to-the-home electronics. “Unless the pricing structures change, if you're downloading 5 gigabytes a night, I don’t think you're going to do it over a Verizon LTE network in a rural area,” he said. “Mobile is not a substitute for home broadband connections,” said Jessica Gonzalez, vice president-policy and legal affairs at the National Hispanic Media Coalition. “It’s insufficient for a number of very important tasks,” she said, noting several obstacles: cost, data caps, websites that aren’t friendly to mobile devices, slower speeds, and the lack of universal availability.
For enterprise customers, “cutting the cord” is not a realistic option, said Andrew Brown, a partner at Levine Blaszak. Brown negotiates agreements with major telecom providers on behalf of his large enterprise clients. “If you are a Fortune 1,000 company, the percentage of wireless-only enterprise companies is zero percent,” he said. “They're buying a lot of wireless, but not as a substitute.” Similarly, cable or VoIP don’t work very well in the enterprise market because they lack reliability and scalability, he said.
Copper had its defenders. “Copper continues to be important,” said Randolph Nicklas, chief technology officer for XO Communications, a CLEC that serves business customers. “I can’t overstress that.” Copper will need to be around until the FCC and industry have detailed plans and regulatory regimes in place for the new networks that will take its place, he said. Ultimately, he sees the network of the future as being “a combination of fiber and radio, with vestigial use of copper.” But questions will remain, he said. “What happens to alternative access? What happens to competitive providers? It’s unclear.”