Strickling, McDowell Front Runners for FCC Chairman, Depending on Outcome of Election

If Democrats retain the White House and Genachowski leaves, senior Democratic Commissioner Mignon Clyburn is a likely acting chairman, industry and agency officials agreed. NTIA Administrator Larry Strickling has long been considered a front runner to be chairman in a second term, officials say. Strickling has made clear he plans to stick around government for a second administration. Like Genachowski and Obama, Strickling graduated from Harvard Law School, though 15 years earlier. He was a policy coordinator for Obama for America during the 2008 campaign, always an important asset, and has the added advantage of a strong record on spectrum issues at a time when wireless issues dominate many FCC discussions, sources suggest.

Tom Wheeler is also considered a likely candidate, according to some industry officials. Wheeler, unlike most previous chairmen not a lawyer, is former president of NCTA and CTIA. He joined Core Capital Partners, a venture capital firm, after he left CTIA. Wheeler has been active in the Obama campaign, as has been his wife Carol, and in February they co-hosted a fundraiser lunch featuring First Lady Michelle Obama. Wheeler was already tapped by Obama for the Obama-Biden Transition Project’s Agency Review Working Group and as a member of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board. He is chairman of the FCC Technological Advisory Council.

Media Bureau Chief Bill Lake is interested in FCC chairmanship and could be a candidate, industry and agency sources say. Lake, former head of the DTV Task Force, was the longtime leader of the communications regulatory practice at WilmerHale, and has a long record of government service at the Department of State, Environmental Protection Agency and Council on Environmental Quality. Like Genachowski, he was a Supreme Court clerk.

Scott Harris, executive vice president at Neustar, is also considered a likely candidate, industry sources said. Harris was active in the 2008 campaign and has been helping raise money for Obama this time around as well. Harris left the law firm he founded, formerly Harris, Wiltshire and Grannis, to become general counsel at the Energy Department during Obama’s first term. Also on any short list, industry and government officials say, is current Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel, who has the advantage of coming off the staff of Senate Commerce Committee Chairman Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va. Several industry sources mentioned Blair Levin as well. Levin is a former analyst and FCC chief of staff, who oversaw the National Broadband Plan, and was considered for the open commission seat that went to Rosenworcel. Levin has avoided conflicts of interest since he left the FCC, working for the Aspen Institute, so he remains a viable candidate, sources said.

On the Republican side if former Gov. Mitt Romney wins, most speculation starts with Commissioner Robert McDowell, a member of the FCC since 2006. Most sources said McDowell is likely to be named acting chairman in the event of a Republican victory. McDowell has provided policy guidance to the Romney campaign and has deep contacts with key offices on Capitol Hill, sources said. Recently confirmed Commissioner Ajit Pai, with ties to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., also could get a look, sources said.

If Romney is victorious, there would likely be a broad-ranging review of possible candidates, especially since Romney would also have to appoint a third Republican commissioner to fill out the new majority, industry observers said. One industry lawyer noted that there are a lot of people working for the Romney campaign who haven’t been in government, and some will want jobs if Romney is elected.

So far, no one has emerged from the Romney campaign with a strong communications background and portfolio similar to Genachowski who played a key role in the 2008 Obama campaign as chairman of the Technology, Media and Telecommunications Policy Working Group. But the path to FCC chairman is not always predictable and intangibles often play a role. Genachowski was expected to get a key administration position. Eight years earlier, former President George W. Bush tapped a sitting commissioner Michael Powell, as chairman, and Powell’s father was then-Secretary of State Colin Powell. Eight years previously, President Bill Clinton tapped Reed Hundt, a litigator with little communications background, as chairman. Hundt was a high school friend of former Vice President Al Gore.

"Candidates for top FCC posts have historically come from law firms, presidential campaigns, and state PUC’s,” said MF Global analyst Paul Gallant. “For the past 20 years you've had at least one of the five FCC commissioners, typically, a former state PUC commissioner."

It’s likely that Romney transition team members will be looking for agency candidates who come from an industry background and have a “deregulatory predisposition,” said Richard Bennett, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation senior research fellow. “I think you'll probably see appointments being made to the FCC that would immediately reopen the open Internet proceeding and erase those rules … and offer less conditions on the spectrum auctions like the D-block conditions.”