Stephenson Says LTE, Cloud to Lead to Explosion of Wireless Traffic
DALLAS -- The volume of U.S. mobile traffic will explode by a factor of 8-10 by 2015, creating an environment “characterized by chaos,” AT&T Chairman Randall Stephenson said in a TIA convention keynote. He said the developments will depend on “getting regulatory and tax policy right,” especially providing additional spectrum for wireless. “We are on the cusp of something very different” in telecom, Stephenson said. He cited especially the broad deployment of LTE combined with use of the cloud. “Think about the delivery of high definition video to a wide range of devices” and the impact that will have on network demand, he said.
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The key is new spectrum “in magnitudes we have never dealt with before,” Stephenson said. He said the FCC and Congress are “all over” the spectrum issue. But making bandwidth available won’t happen fast enough, Stephenson said: “We can’t wait six or seven years.” He said wireless operators are “burning through” spectrum “at an alarming rate” and some markets “are approaching exhaust."
Stephenson said his company’s planned buy of T-Mobile is key to AT&T’s short-term plans to solve spectrum problems, because combining the networks generates efficiencies that can increase the capacity of the same amount of spectrum. He said integration of the merging networks will be “elegant,” and if the deal is approved AT&T will immediately commit to an additional $8 billion investment in LTE.
Stephenson said the telecom industry is entering a 10-15-year cycle of new investment, but that will only happen if the regulatory environment is right. He repeatedly mentioned the tax environment. He didn’t provide details and left immediately after his speech.
TIA Notebook
Wireless is a big growth area, yet Alcatel-Lucent also remains bullish on wireline, said Robert Vrij, the company’s president-Americas region. He said the boundary between wireless and wireline is blurring, citing the growing demand for wireless backhaul. National broadband plans are also emerging around the world as nations see it as key to growing economies, Vrij said.
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Some 70 million homes will be passed by TV Everywhere by the end of the year, predicted Jeremy Legg, Turner Broadcasting senior vice president-multiplatform distribution. He said the rapid growth is a result of spending the last few years “getting the technology plumbing working.” He also said that as consumers view TV on proliferating devices, one key is for audience measurement techniques to keep up: “We're at a real crossroads.” One possibility is measuring the actual data streams, but traditional Nielsen-type sampling remains possible, he said, though Nielsen samples would have to assure the presence of an adequate number of people with the new viewing devices.
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One key to getting content to consumers in new ways is simplifying it for them, Joseph Ambeault, said Verizon director-entertainment services. Most consumers will spend only a few minutes learning how to use a new device or service, before giving it up forever, he said. Ambeault said a solution may be basing content and services in the cloud, making it easily available to consumers on all devices.