5G service revenue is expected to exceed $65 billion by 2025, said a report from Juniper Research Wednesday. Juniper said it estimates commercial rollouts of 5G will begin in 2020 and at least $25 billion will be invested during the next five years in 5G development, research and trials. But Juniper said it anticipates widespread 5G adoption won't occur until 2025, accounting for years of national spectrum licensing. Juniper said it found "a growing consensus" on the development of 5G standards, which include network speeds of at least 10 Gbps, 1 millisecond latency or less, improved spectral efficiency, lower energy consumption, better battery life and higher device density. 5G will "act as a catalyst" for a wide range of new experiences, including high-definition 4K-8K video, self-driving cars, advanced virtual reality and both data intensive and energy efficient applications, said the researcher. It expects more than 3 billion global 4G LTE connections by 2020.
Safe Connections Act
The Small Cell Forum and 4G Americas agreed to collaborate on work programs for small cells and 5G communication systems and networks, the groups said Monday. “The agreement formalizes the exchange of information between the two organizations which may include joint publications, meetings, workshops and a broad range of industry outreach,” they said in a news release. “Sharing the insights and information of both memberships will limit duplication and could accelerate the rollout of 5G networks and services at a pivotal time for mobile broadband.” Sue Monahan, CEO of the Small Cell Forum, said the agreement is “a major step forward in ensuring a quicker, clearer path to 5G deployment.”
The FCC will likely release an NPRM later this year as it continues its examination of how new developments in technology could increase the viability of operations in bands above 24 GHz, Chairman Tom Wheeler said in a blog post Monday. The FCC approved a notice of inquiry on the topic in October (see 1410170048). “The NPRM will focus on developing a flexible regulatory framework that will allow maximum use of higher-frequency bands by a wide variety of providers, whether the service they provide is mobile, fixed, or satellite,” Wheeler wrote. “I anticipate that we will explore a range of regulatory strategies depending on the specifics of each proposed higher-frequency band, including licensed, unlicensed, and hybrid shared models.” Wheeler also predicted that lower-frequency bands will play a role in 5G. “For example, the timing of the incentive auction makes the 600 MHz band a prime candidate for deployment of a wide-area 5G coverage layer,” he said. “In much the same way that 700 MHz paved the way for America's world-leading deployment of 4G, so could 600 MHz accelerate U.S. deployment of 5G.” Wheeler also said the FCC will look at bilateral sharing of spectrum. The Department of Defense in particular has advocated rules under which government agencies also could share underutilized commercial bands (see 1503190041). "In addition, we will encourage and support other agencies' efforts to fund research on 5G and will encourage building cybersecurity protections for new 5G networks from the start," he said.
Policymakers in Washington are in growing agreement that the U.S. needs to identify at least 350 MHz of new spectrum for wireless broadband, said CTIA Executive Vice President Brad Gillen Friday in a blog post. “Here’s why this consensus on spectrum policy is so important,” he wrote. “Mobile data traffic grew more than 35-fold from 2009 to 2014, and today the average user consumes 1.8 gigabits of data each month. By 2019, mobile data traffic is projected to be six times the amount flowing as of last year. Infrastructure deployments and efficient spectrum use alone cannot keep up with the rapidly growing demand for 4G connectivity, let alone foster the next generation of 5G technologies.”
Europe is humming with discussions about possible 5G technologies, standards and spectrum requirements, even as many don't know what the technology is, experts said in recent interviews. Industry groups, researchers, telecom regulators and standardization bodies have launched a flurry of 5G-related projects five years before the technology is even expected to be deployed (see 1506030055), Real Wireless Technology Director Simon Saunders said. It's striking that people are so excited about 5G, he said. LTE is still 10 years away from the peak of its rollout and take-up, and yet it's 5G that's being hyped, he said. That enthusiasm may need to be dampened lest it hold back LTE, he said.
Most mobile operators believe mobile broadband capacity and IoT are the primary drivers behind 5G development, said a Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) 5G white paper released Monday. TIA also said 71 percent of mobile operators surveyed think Asia will lead 5G development, and one-third of operators responding to the survey expect their companies to launch commercial 5G service by 2021. The remaining two-thirds don't expect to have full commercial service available until after 2022, TIA said.
FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler proposed a cap on bidding credits any small business or rural carrier is eligible to receive in the TV incentive auction, while shifting the focus of the program to support spectrum buys by small, rural carriers. The competitive bidding rules in general place tough limits on the role designated entities can play in the auction. Auction items are to dominate the commission’s July 16 meeting, based on the agenda released Thursday. Unlike other auction decisions set for a vote at the meeting, the FCC hadn't briefed industry stakeholders on the changes to the DE program.
Informa Telecoms & Media picked 4G Americas to host a new event, 5G World North America, at the company’s LTE North America event in November. “It is vital that North America focuses on 5G research and development,” said Chris Pearson, president of 4G Americas. He said “5G is still in its early stages in terms of examining use cases, requirements and component technologies.” The event is scheduled for the Intercontinental Hotel, Dallas, Nov. 18-19.
LTE deployment continues to grow rapidly, with nearly 635 million total connections worldwide as of Q1, 4G Americas said Friday. That's a 151 percent increase year-over-year, the group said. In North America, 44 percent of mobile connections are LTE, compared with 9 percent worldwide, 4G Americas said. “North America continues to prove its leadership in LTE with metrics such as population coverage, share of market and penetration,” said Chris Pearson, president of 4G Americas. “This foreshadows the future of mobile broadband in the Americas and the important influence that LTE carries as it helps lay the foundation for 5G in 2020 and beyond.” There are 68 commercial LTE networks deployed in the U.S. and Canada, with 180 million LTE connections as of March, a gain of 66 million new LTE subscribers in 12 months, the group said.
DALLAS -- The U.S. wireless industry is looking to the ITU to release standards on 5G, which will help carriers define timelines to roll out the more-efficient, higher-broadband-speed technology, executives said. ITU IMT (international mobile telecommunication) 2020 specifications for international mobile telecom are widely believed to be 5G, said vendor and carrier executives on a panel at a Telecommunications Industry Association conference, and an ITU spokesman confirmed that to us.