China’s recently issued exclusion process for duties on more than 5,000 tariff lines of U.S. products (see 1905130043) shows it is prepared for a “long-term fight” and may be getting ready to “hunker down” in the trade war with the U.S., said Pete Mento, vice president for Crane Worldwide Logistics.

A vote on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement will “hopefully” be soon, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, but stressed that the deal needs strong enforcement provisions before any progress will be made. During a Washington Post Live interview on May 8, Pelosi said an enforcement agreement is a prerequisite to any vote. “Unless you have it built into the agreement … it’s not binding on the other country. It’s us talking to ourselves,” she said. In a recent conversation with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Pelosi said, she urged him to include enforcement in the agreement, or else the agreement is “not a serious thing.” Pelosi said the Trump administration has expressed a desire to work on enforcement and said Trump has told her “we want to get to a yes” on the deal. “So hopefully that will be soon,” she said.

China will take “necessary countermeasures” if the U.S. follows through on threats to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, according to an unofficial translation of a statement released by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce on May 8. “The escalation of trade friction is not in the interests of the people of the two countries and the people of the world,” the statement said. “The Chinese side deeply regrets that if the US tariff measures are implemented, China will have to take necessary countermeasures.”

While the Chinese have not levied tariffs on U.S. aircraft, the top manufactured good China imports from the U.S., that could change if President Donald Trump follows through on his May 5 threat to hike 10 percent tariffs to 25 percent, one expert believes. Edward Alden, a trade expert and professor at Western Washington University, said that the Chinese have been seriously negotiating for five months, and if the U.S. walks away, they will hunker down for a long, protracted trade war. They could levy tariffs on airplanes, increase customs hassles for those U.S. firms exporting goods to China and create geopolitical trouble for the U.S.

Reforms of Mexico's labor laws passed its Senate overwhelmingly April 29, and that vote was hailed by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. "These reforms will greatly improve Mexico's system of labor justice and are exactly what labor leaders in the United States and Mexico have sought for decades. As we move forward with the ratification of USMCA, the Trump Administration will work closely with members of the United States Congress and the Mexican government to ensure these reforms are implemented and enforced," his office said in a statement the evening of April 29.

Canada and Colombia were removed from the priority watch list for intellectual property violations, and Tajikistan moved off the watch list, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative's annual review of countries' policies on patents, trade secrets, counterfeits and piracy. Saudi Arabia was moved up to the priority watch list because of deteriorating conditions there, including "rampant satellite and online piracy," a USTR official said April 25.

Dozens of agriculture trade groups and companies wrote to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to tell him that "the U.S. food and agriculture industry is increasingly disadvantaged by competing regional and bilateral agreements with Japan that have already been implemented, including the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the European Union-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EU-Japan EPA)."

Skadden Arps partner Joseph Barloon will become general counsel at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, after current general counsel Stephen Vaughn departs in a few weeks, USTR announced April 22.

The U.S. and China are aiming to reach a trade agreement by early May and sign it later that month, according to an April 17 report by Bloomberg. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are expected to travel to Beijing in late April, according to the report, followed by a Washington visit from Chinese Vice Premier Liu He the next week. During that visit, officials hope to announce a trade agreement, Bloomberg reported.

The World Trade Organization said China is not living up to its promises in how it uses tariff rate quotas for wheat, corn and rice, giving the U.S. a second victory in agriculture disputes with China. China may appeal the panel finding. The WTO said that the fact that state-trading enterprises are given specific shares of the lower-duty import quotas, but that those enterprises don't always use all of the quota, and it is not reallocated to other buyers, means that China restrains the filling of its tariff rate quotas.