AWS-3 and Upper C Band May Be the Only Spectrum Auctions Under Carr
Many of the bands highlighted in the Dec. 19 presidential memo on spectrum for 6G will likely take years to bring to auction, but that may be all right with carriers, who will face two auctions in the next two years, industry officials told us.
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AT&T and Verizon took a hit on Wall Street after going big in the initial C-band auction (see 2103120063 and 2103110034), though that spectrum has helped them narrow the gap with T-Mobile, which has 2.4 GHz and other spectrum. AT&T agreed in August to pay EchoStar $23 billion for 3.45 and 600 MHz spectrum (see 2508260005). Analysts said the three major carriers may not want an auction too quickly after the upper C-band one in the summer of 2027.
The Trump memo put most attention on 7.125-7.4 GHz, directing NTIA to start work on moving federal incumbents from the band, which has been a focus of carriers (see 2512190086). It also called out spectrum at 2.69-2.9 and 4.4-4.94 GHz, two other bands that Congress identified as potential bands for a midband pipeline. Questions remain about the likely net effect of the memo, since work on the bands has already started (see 2512220048).
FCC Commissioner Anna Gomez told reporters after the Dec. 18 commissioner meeting that it’s unclear to her what will happen on various bands. “The administration is looking at other bands, and those studies are continuing,” she said. “The conversations between the FCC and NTIA and the other federal agencies continue.”
FCC Chairman Brendan Carr has made clear that the agency staff's main focus on auctions will be the upper C band until that auction is completed (see 2511200046).
The upper C band will be “enough work for now” for the FCC, while technical studies and internal discussions continue on the other bands, predicted Disruptive Analysis consultant Dean Bubley. The 2.7-2.9 GHz band “might be tough because of incumbents like weather radar," but maybe only in certain locations, he said. “Various people think it’s promising, though, so I’m not sure.”
Bubley said that in the medium term, 4.4-4.9 GHz appears “promising,” with some in the industry wanting to “start at the top of the band and work down.” It’s unclear whether AT&T’s purchase of EchoStar spectrum “will go through without a hitch.”
Michael Calabrese, director of the Wireless Future Program at New America, said the amount of spectrum likely to be reassigned or reallocated to the "big three" mobile carriers next year “is far more than they can use, considering that currently so much of their midband spectrum would be lying fallow if not for their new, lower-value use of it to compete in the fixed home broadband market.”
Work Remains
The current band studies are a long way “from bearing fruit, but a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step,” emailed New Street’s Blair Levin. AWS-3 and the upper C band are likely to be the only auctions under Carr, and FCC chairs “are much more focused on what they can do than what their successors can do,” Levin said. There’s also an “overhang” from Wall Street related to the next auctions “in that the carriers spent a lot for 5G but 5G has not resulted in material new revenue streams.”
Recon Analytics’ Roger Entner said that if the major carriers want the administration to move quickly, it’s because “we have an administration and commission that wants to get things done on licensed, full-power spectrum.” When there’s a change at the White House, “the fear is that we go back to the … situation of the last FCC, where everything was paralyzed.”
NTIA will devote 2026 to studying the bands identified in the reconciliation package so the FCC can start a proceeding “on one or more of those bands in 2027 and beyond,” Calabrese predicted. That leaves the FCC “free to stick to its current agenda as it waits for NTIA to recommend what large, contiguous blocks of federal spectrum can be cleared for auction.”
The biggest surprise in the presidential memo was the focus on the 7 GHz band, “which NTIA has been saying for good reason is a lower priority than reallocating the 2 and 4 GHz bands,” Calabrese added. The propagation characteristics of 7 GHz make the band “improbable as a core band for 6G, since it cannot cover contiguous areas on existing towers, and it cannot penetrate indoors unless far higher power levels were authorized.”
Former FCC Commissioner Mike O’Rielly said there will be “a natural flow of commercial spectrum auctions over the next eight to 10 years.” While the next 18 months or so may be focused on AWS-3 and upper C-band issues, “Carr, and eventually the next commission, will get the chance to hold auctions resulting from the charge for NTIA and FCC to find even more” spectrum for full-power licensed use, he said.
“Regardless of whether carriers are ready to spend huge amounts in a rapid succession of auctions, getting spectrum rights into the market will make these bands more productive, and that is better overall than any short-term auction revenue,” emailed Joe Kane, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation's director of broadband and spectrum policy.