Netflix Viewer Data Undermines WBD Monopoly Claims: Former Broadcast Exec
Netflix data shows that even after acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery, its share of U.S. TV viewing would increase from about 8% to 9%, which "reframes the antitrust argument" against the deal, former AVTN NewsNet24/7 CEO Phillip Covell wrote Monday. YouTube accounts for about 13% of viewing time, and Paramount/WBD would approach 14%, meaning "claims of Netflix dominance no longer align with consumer behavior," he said. "This is not a streaming war; it is an attention economy." He added that European regulatory objection to Netflix/WBD runs into the same problem.
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Covell also argued that a Paramount/WBD deal would create a larger viewing-share footprint than Netflix/WBD, along with dual newsrooms, broadcast exposure and sports-rights inflation. Netflix "avoids news, broadcast, legacy sports and political adjacency," and WBD assets wouldn't inflate regulatory risk.
Still to be explained to Paramount Skydance shareholders is why it's bidding for all of WBD instead of just HBO and Warner Bros., LightShed Partners' Rich Greenfield wrote Tuesday. "Given the growing headwinds facing linear TV ... why would anyone want to own more linear TV in 2026 and beyond?" The answer is likely that Paramount needs the cash flow to help finance the debt load from the WBD transaction, Greenfield said.
Paramount also needs to explain why three Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds are major funders of the transaction (see 2512080007), Greenfield said. He cited Paramount's argument that since none of them will have governance rights, there's no need for regulatory approval from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. Whether that workaround will concern regulators remains to be seen, as a big backer of Al Jazeera would have a meaningful ownership stake in CBS, CNN and two major movie and television studios, Greenfield said.
Netflix has a superior bid, and Paramount "appears to be stretching to make the math work" on a WBD deal, Greenfield added. He suggested that Paramount should instead pursue a merger with NBCUniversal or boost its spending on content significantly.