Baucus Departure May Not Derail Trade Agenda, Say Industry Leaders

“Sen. Baucus will continue working hard on his legislative agenda in [January],” said the Baucus spokesman, following the formal announcement of the nomination (see 13122015). “TPA is at the top of that list.” The administration move generated initial consternation in the trade community, said industry leaders. “My immediate reaction was that the decision would probably slow down TPA, only because transitions often slow things down, not because of some sinister plot,” said National Foreign Trade Council President Bill Reinsch. “When there is a change in chairman in particular, there will be a ripple effect on committee staff. But there are some people that think the nomination will speed up TPA legislation.”

There remains the opportunity to introduce TPA legislation prior to Senate confirmation for Baucus, but that vote could come as early as a matter of weeks, said Reinsch, requiring the Senate to move particularly fast. “The body takes care of its own,” said Reinsch. “Between the people that are happy to see him go and those who want to send him off quickly as a sign of respect…that constitutes a healthy majority.” The confirmation of Secretary of State John Kerry is an example of quick action for sitting Senators. Then Sen. Kerry was nominated for Secretary of State on Dec. 21, 2012 and eventually confirmed on Jan. 29, 2013.

Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., is widely anticipated to get the nod to replace Baucus as Finance Chairman. Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., currently outranks Wyden on the Finance Committee, but Rockefeller in January announced his intent to retire at the end of this Congress (here). Wyden and staff members have refused to comment on the prospect of taking on Finance leadership. “The Senate Finance Committee has many important responsibilities which include promoting job creation, ensuring competitiveness and stabilizing the nation’s fiscal health,” said Wyden in a statement (here), without further elaboration.

Regarding respective trade-related platform priorities, there are no glaring differences between Baucus and Wyden that would suggest Wyden will be a more difficult negotiating partner on trade issues after taking over the chairmanship, said Reinsch. Wyden has also repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to reach across the aisle in his more than 30 years of service in Congress, added Reinsch.

There is no concrete indication of significant committee personnel changes in the pipeline, said Marianne Rowden, American Association of Exporters and Importers CEO. “I suspect when you have hot pieces of legislation going through there will not be major changes to the committee staff,” said Rowden. “I think the president is losing a good ambassador, pun aside, for trade legislation on the Senate floor. But Senator Wyden will continue that tradition. We have no doubt that Senator Wyden will be committed to pushing through trade legislation.”

Despite the brokerage of a TPA legislation deal, there remains bipartisan opposition (see 13111230). Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) proponents are pushing for TPA passage, but garnering sufficient support in the House remains a challenge, said two TPP Caucus co-chairs in early December (see 13120528). Aside from criticism that TPA vests disproportionate power in the Executive branch in shaping trade policy, the inclusion of Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) in final legislation will prove to be contentious, said Reinsch. “It appears this will be one of the more difficult things in the debate,” said Reinsch, adding that Baucus has been a primary champion of TAA. “Republicans say they won’t vote for if TAA is in the bill. Democrats are saying they won’t vote for it if TAA isn’t in.”

Regardless of the fallout, the administration move to nominate Baucus shocked many in the trade community, according to Rowden. Baucus announced in April his intent to retire from the Senate at the end of this term (here), but the veteran lawmaker has continued to vocally push for progress on trade issues, such as concluding the TPP negotiations (see 13111516). “We thought he’d push through a trade agenda for his legacy…certainly TPP, Customs Reauthorization, [the African Growth and Opportunity Act] and the whole alphabet soup of trade legislation,” said Rowden. The administration failed to meet its end of 2013 target for TPP negotiation conclusion (see 13121110). “I expected him to be the locomotive for a lot of legislation to go through. This really took us by surprise.”

Baucus received notable praise, however, from political figures and business leaders alike in the wake of the nomination announcement. “Senator Baucus will have a unique ability to explain the views and role of the U.S. Congress to the Chinese government. This will be a critical asset as the U.S. government engages in important Bilateral Investment Treaty negotiations with China that will ultimately require Senate approval for implementation,” said U.S.-China Business Council Vice President Erin Ennis in a Dec. 20 statement (here). “Senator Baucus is particularly well positioned to advance the interests of American companies in China and help expand market access for the benefit of American workers and farmers.” -- Brian Dabbs