No Telecom Bill, as Senate Recesses, Despite Stevens’ Effort

But by mid-day Thurs. the vote count wasn’t shaping up. “Can we get 60 votes? Yes, but by this afternoon, I'm not certain,” Sen. Sununu (R-N.H.) told us Thurs. Sununu was helping Stevens to round up votes. He said the legislation was important to get done this year because technology is moving so quickly, provisions worked out in this bill might be obsolete by next Congress: “If we don’t done get it done this year, it'll be a long time before we have another opportunity.”

Republicans are trying to sell the bill as an economic boost for Americans -- a money-saving tool that would give them an alternative to the cable monopoly. “It will bring competition to the video programming marketplace,” Sen. Martinez (R-Fla.) said in a floor speech Thurs: “I urge my colleagues to support the efforts of Senator Stevens to bring this legislation before us.”

Stevens must convince Senate Majority Leader Frist (R- Tenn.) that he not only has the 60 votes but that the bill won’t attract contentious amendments that could put members in tight races in a difficult spot, observers said. “My opinion is the same it’s been all along -- it’s possible but still an uphill fight,” said Stifel Nicolaus analyst Blair Levin. Frist can’t afford amendment battles that are “damaging to the majority,” Levin said.

Net neutrality is the obvious ticking time bomb for Republicans. “It’s what the liberal left have hung their hat on,” Sununu said, suggesting the issue has become more political than a substantive policy debate. He said adequate protections exist under current law and the FCC’s statement of principles, which the bill would codify. Proponents of net neutrality legislation, however, are still working to get out their message during the Aug. recess. The National League of Cities posted a notice this week urging elected officials to “voice their opposition to the proposed telecom bill now pending in the Senate.” Its website notice said the bill would “seriously undermine consumer rights, threaten competition and prevent local governments from protecting their taxpayers.”

Campaigns like this raise the stakes for those who back the bill, which already faces competition for floor time in Sept., several telecom experts said. “Chances of passing a broad bill still appear limited,” said Paul Gallant, analyst with Stanford Washington Research Group. When Congress comes back after the summer recess, there’s limited time to pursue a complex bill that faces opposition from Democrats who want net neutrality provisions, Gallant said: “I doubt members view telecom as must pass legislation” on a par with priorities like immigration and minimum wage.

The next step for Stevens is to move to a slimmed-down bill that deals only with video franchise relief and Universal Service Fund reform -- a formula that Hill sources say has a more reasonable chance of passage. Stevens has said he'd pursue that strategy, although he hasn’t talked about it lately. House Commerce Committee Chmn. Barton (R- Tex.) is expected to be amenable to some type of compromise on USF in the interest of striking a deal on a telecom bill, Hill sources said. But ultimately the entire package hangs on how much controversy net neutrality proponents stir up. “I think we can [pass the bill] -- no problem,” said one Senate source close to the negotiations.

“The time is very short,” said attorney Richard Wiley, a long-time observer of the FCC and telecom legislation. He said a simplified bill might be the best chance, but if the bill ends up being considered in a lame duck session it’s hard to predict what would happen: “The odds have to be long, but I would never count out Sen. Stevens so we'll see.”

The Senate Commerce Committee late Fri. posted the current version of the Senate telecom bill on its website (commerce.senate.gov/public/_files/HR5252RS.pdf).