SLOWING MARKET AND MERGERS ARE ISSUES CONFRONTING SATELLITES
Tight market conditions and industry consolidation leave no room for new companies in satellite business, said Marshall Kaplan, chmn., Satellite On Demand, at Washington Space Business Roundtable panel Wed. “I really don’t see any room for additional companies, given the varieties of launches,” he said, and he expected “some consolidation.” Kaplan dismissed notion of companies’ shutting down, but said they would “consolidate or merge in the next 2, 3 or 4 years.” Other industry officials have made similar predictions (CD Feb 14 p2).
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U.S. export controls have affected American launch companies, said Gregory Gilmore, regional dir.-Americas, International Launch Services (ILS), citing recent Satellite Industry Assn. (SIA) study pointing to their 30% loss of market share because of strict export controls (CD Feb 7 p5). He said controls “had an effect with our customer base” because of “subtle concerns” by customers who look for assurances that satellite will launch on time as far as 2 years ahead of planned flight. Gilmore said quota on Russian launches (CD Jan 10 p5), which ended Dec. 31, 2000, “served its purpose.”
Kaplan said limited market for small expendable launch vehicles (ELV) and limited capability would lead to small ELVs’ being phased out, but Gilmore disagreed: “There is a marketplace for that, but they're not going to have as many players… As long as there’s a need for high reliability, the Delta II will stay in the market.”
Reusable launch vehicles (RLV) won’t be available soon, Kaplan said: “There are no true reusable launchers today.” RLVs won’t be available for at least 10 to 20 years and when they come to market, they would be limited to “one-mission LEOs.” Arianespace Chmn. Douglas Heydon said in written remarks that “if and when” RLVs became available, “they will not have the performance to replace the expendable launch vehicle.” He said ELV market “will feel the effects of trends,” such as lower cost and increased competition.